Monday, November 10, 2014

Browns: Meet the new AFC North leader

After this Sunday and the Steelers loss at the Jets (13-20), the Browns are now sole leaders of the AFC North division in the NFL. Obviously, I had never seen that before. What's more surprising is that even long-time followers of the NFL can't remember that ever happening. If what I read is correct, it's been since 1994 that the Browns haven't been first of their division --AFC Central then-- that late in the season.

With a 6-3-0 overall record after Week 10, the Browns are becoming contenders for the play-offs in the mind of analysts and Football enthusiasts. Their win at Cincinnati on Thursday (24-3) broke a good number of streaks :

  • As mentioned already, 20 years without a division sole lead for the Browns that late in the season
  • A 14 home winning streak for the Bengals in regular season
  • A 17 road losing streak for the Browns in division matchups
AFC North Standings after week 10 - Screenshot from NFL.com

Moreover, the fact that they are first in the only division in which all teams have a positive record is even more amazing.

That being said, the path is still long with 7 games left in the regular season before even dreaming continuing in January. Four road games for three home games, two division games receiving the Bengals on week 15 before going to the Ravens for the last game of the regular season, each week, the Browns will now have to prove worthy of their new status.

The reasons for the division lead

The Browns have shown in their first 9 games a variety of good qualities that can explain the unexpected lead. 

The passing defense with our coverage by the safeties and the cornerbacks along with the efficient pass-rush makes us a terrible team to beat. Quarterbacks have had a 57.9% completion rate (2nd lowest in the NFL) for 12 Touchdowns (3rd lowest) and 13 interceptions (2nd highest), with an additional 20 sacks against the Browns. Tashaun Gipson (6 INT), Buster Skrine (4 INT) and Joe Haden in the backfield are uncompromising. Paul Kruger (6 Sacks) and Jabaal Sheard are also doing the job to defend against the pass.

Brian Hoyer
That good passing defense is what's mostly responsible for the +9 differential on turnovers. The safe Hoyer is the other responsible with 4 interceptions for 10 touchdowns.

Not as constant, but very efficient in the majority of games --excluding the three awful weeks that were 7, 8 and 9-- the running offensive game can be a terrific weapon. The three-headed running monster (Ben Tate, Terrance West, Isaiah Crowell) wins yards, scores touchdowns and allows for a great play-action passing game, at which Hoyer and his offensive line excel.

The comeback of Jordan Cameron and Josh Gordon will permit to vary the plays even more and with more efficiency, even if the receivers did a great job, Andrew Hawkins leading the way.

Nothing is done yet

A 6-3 record is good, but the Browns are known for losing streaks recently, and a 2 or 3 losses in a row could dismantle a good effort in the first half of the season. 

The Houston Texans, our next opponents, are coming to Cleveland on week 11 with a negative record. But it would be a big mistake to underestimate them, especially since their strongest asset is also our biggest flaw. The running defense has been far from perfect, allowing much more than 4 yards per carry in most games. The Texans are 4th in the NFL in terms of yards per game. We'll have to step up on these plays and carry on with the good work to continue this season at the same rhythm.

I would be extremely disappointed if we'd finish the season with a 8-8 record I was hoping for in my pre-season blog post in August.

Go Browns!!